Red Gold

A Happy New Year to our readers!

Following on from previous articles on wine investment, I thought the new year should contain some further validation of wine’s inherent value. Over the past 12 months, fine wine has fared better in investment terms than Gold, crude oil or traditional shares.

The Liv-Ex Fine Wine Exchange provides a trading service for Fine wines to satisfy the speculative urges of investors. Their benchmark for gauging the health of the market tracks first growth Bordeaux Chateaux across ten vintages to collate their Liv-Ex Fine Wine 50. This index has seen a genuinely staggering 57% increase throughout 2010.

Meanwhile, amidst soaring commodity prices, this rise has outstripped traditional investment options. The value of gold has risen 35%, crude oil has risen by 20% and the FTSE 100 by 11%. Developing markets in Asia are seen to be the strong driver for this growth, with the success of Lafite Rothscild a useful example of this phenomenon.

It’s unlikely I’ll be dipping my toes in the water, short of a lottery windfall, but it makes interesting reading for oenophiles around the world!

Playing to the Gallery

Much has been made of the potential for export growth to emerging luxury markets in both China and Russia. Many of the largest European and American brands who trade in such commodities have upped their representation overseas and staged large fairs and PR exercises designed to communicate ‘Old World’ sophistication and bolster their cultural capital. Wine has been one at the forefront of this development as an easily exportable status symbol with infinite potential for specialisation. The notion that one culture’s status symbol can be an instantly recognisable cipher for different values is an Ad man’s dream. When a product speaks of more than its qualities or production method, it gains a certain power. When that power becomes global, the product itself becomes a sort of gnomic reference to a whole litany of associations.

Andy Warhol once commented on the conceptual power of Coca-Cola in its unification of consumers across class, geography, sex and any other division. In his own eloquence:

“You can be watching TV and see Coca-Cola, and you can know that the President drinks Coke, Liz Taylor drinks Coke, and just think, you can drink Coke, too. A Coke is a Coke and no amount of money can get you a better Coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the Cokes are the same and all the Cokes are good.”

Juxtaposing these different situations presents a stark reminder of the socially levelling potential which the standardisation of products brings. Yet, at the same time, Warhol’s reflection presents us with a fairly interesting inverse. Those products which retain cultural cache and survive as unassailable status symbols in the modern world do so for exactly the reason that you can’t imagine their consumption by disparate social groups. Chateau Lafite is Chateau Lafite and whilst the President may drink it and Liz Taylor may well have done, the odds are that you can’t. Ouch. Don’t get me wrong, neither can I – that’s sort of the point of the whole status symbol thing. Yet these sorts of status symbols interest me not for their reserved nature, but for their transferability.

Chateau Lafite has massively boosted its profile in China with a culturally attuned move to enhance their appeal to that market.  Their newly bottled 2008 vintage has been daubed with the Chinese symbol for 8 – a specifically lucky symbol in a culture which values such charms. Incredulous western news reports often recount the exorbitant sale of phone numbers or vehicle registrations which predominantly feature the number 8. Regardless, the bottle’s labelling provides an approving nod from a genuine status symbol.

Lafite’s market share has since rocketed, as sales have risen on the back of this new engagement with Chinese culture.   UK wine sellers have reported wide-ranging stock shortages, as initial allocations flew out of the cellar and replacement stock has evaporated just as quickly. Indeed, investors reported an approximately 20% rise in prices, as a case surpassed the £10,000 mark for the first time. Investors have almost solely been Chinese or working towards the Chinese market.

For the brand spokespeople at Lafite, “the shape of the symbol seems to offer a perfect representation of the slopes of the vineyard and commemorates the launch of our Chinese wine project.” Indeed, the move is not wholly cynical. The symbol specifically commemorates the cooperation of Lafite with the Chinese State in planting 25 hectares of vines in the Penglai peninsula, Shangdong province. The seaside area, famed for dramatic coastal views and the Penglai Water Castle, boasts a moderate climate influenced by its position nestled between mountains and the sea. Long touted for investment, the Penglai are has been praised for the successful cultivation of noble varietals such as Chardonnay, Chenin Blanc and Ruby Cabernet. Some have even gone so far as to label it ‘China’s Bordeaux’, a moniker which will only be strengthened by Lafite’s investment.

Another interesting engagement with the Chinese market was made on behalf of Chateau Mouton Rothschild. Speculation that they were employing a Chinese artist to design the label for their 2008 vintage saw prices rocket on the back of market speculation. Playing to the gallery, it seems, pays well when done correctly.

Yet the eager courting of such markets brings with it abiding dangers. Such dangers don’t relate specifically to the Chinese market, or indeed any other, but instead stem from an over-reliance on the opinion of some. I have written before about Robert Parker and the perils of purported ‘Parkerisation’, which has seen French vineyards attempt to guide production towards the whims of one man’s critical empire. What then is to become of the next dominant market? Will the lure of China’s export potential drive changes in the production of wine in Europe?

This is an interesting prospect, made even more so by the prominent role of high status wineries in courting that market. If a recognised status symbol alters itself to suit an emerging market, does it change the value of the product as a status symbol? Likewise, it could be argued that the task of Lafite or any other prestige brand is to shape the market to their tastes. In an interesting economic dance, the competing influence of established product and eager consumer can lead to profound adaptation on both sides.

Perhaps in their plans to plant vines in Penglai, Lafite are stealing a march on their competition. If China is to emerge as a fine wine producer rather than just fine wine consumer (excepting the presence of many wineries such as Shanxi Grace which, although quality, lack the cache of Bordeaux’s leading houses), then European wineries would do well to get in on the ground floor. The adaptation of status symbols could well be worked round, as an organic brand emerging from within China and bearing the important association with French Chateaux could translate the competing desires of product and consumer. In this way, the negative aspects of processes like Parkerisation could cede to a genuinely sympathetic development which broaches the divide between emerging markets and existing products. Playing to the gallery need not be reductive if its chock full of other actors!

A few of my favourite things: Wine & Comics

First, a confession: two of my favourite things are wine and comics. That may not make me a billionaire playboy, but it certainly keeps me entertained. Sadly, they are interests which seldom coincide.

As you can well imagine, my interest was piqued when I heard recently that the renowned French comic writer Eric Corbeyran is currently producing a series of graphic novels based in the world of wine entitled ‘Médoc’. The Bordeaux resident’s best-selling titles include Le Chant des Stryges, Atavisme and Epreuve and this new work will co-authored by Sébastien Portet, also known as Espé. Volume one is reported to be complete and will be released in 2011, with an expected run of three volumes. The story is rumoured to be a family saga, focussing on a young American woman whose inheritance of Château Chêne Courbe after her father’s death, proves more difficult than she first imagined as the problems of winemaking are exacerbated by a slew of long-lasting feuds.

Corbeyran is not the first to mix wine and comics, however. The manga series ‘Kami No Shizuka’ (The Drops of God) has been a popular line of comic books since 2004. The story focuses on two brothers searching to discover the identity and location of 12 legendary wines recommended by their father which they call  the ‘Twelve Apostles’. The prize in the hunt is their late father’s 18 million dollar wine cellar and the competition is fierce. The series specialises in lyrical and off-beat descriptions of real wines with accompanying illustrations. It is these idiosyncratic tasting notes which have been credited with driving interest in fine wines all across Asia.

The Japanese importer Enoteca has admitted that it has begun to consider the recommendations of characters in Drops of God when making orders from its suppliers. This isn’t unique to Japan, however, and fine wine sales in South Korea have seen a marked increase which can be directly linked to the popularity of the series. Likewise, wine magazine ‘Decanter’ called Drops of God “arguably the most influential wine publication for the past 20 years”.

Whether Corbeyran’s series will have the same impact as The Drops of God remains to be seen, although I’m certainly looking forward to finding out myself.

Shelter from the Storm: Wine investment bucks trends


On the back of this year’s successes with en primeur Bordeaux, investment in wine looks to have been a canny haven for cash during troubled times. Two Swiss economists have conducted a long term study which has tracked an index of leading wines against the stock market over recent years. Philippe Masset and Professor Jean-Philippe Weisskopf of Freiburg University limited their study between 1996 and 2009, with an update to the initial report made just last month in March 2010.

Over the course, their study takes in both boom and bust. Whilst charting both the dotcom crash of the early 2000s and the recent banking crisis, their study also includes the booms preceding both bubbles. The results are fairly clear, with a prudent portfolio of wines (based largely around top Bordeaux Chateaux) investors performed far better than their peers in the conventional stock market.

To quote their report:

“Our results show that since 1996, the General Wine Index and particularly first growths wines from top vintages have performed better than equities while showing a lower volatility.”

Some investment is seen to be driven by Chinese capital, with the acquisition of less conventional assets such as wine an important status symbol as well as a prudent investment.

Their report also highlights the importance of diversifying assets during times of economic difficulty, lessening exposure to market volatility. In this vein, the economists’ General Wine Index performed well. During a relative drop in some Share indexes of 47p since the market crash of mid to late 2008, their wine index dropped only 17p. The researchers specifically stated that during times of painful economic downturn “the defensive characteristics of wine are most pronounced.”

It seems that Bordeaux in particular has provided a welcome shelter from the economic storms affecting the global markets. Yet, this isn’t necessarily all positive for your every day wine lover. With investors clamouring to acquire new holdings, prices are inexorably driven higher, as partially shown in this year’s 18% increase in en primeur Bordeaux. Yet, a wealthy industry is, in part, a healthy industry and the market’s thirst for quality wine will hopefully drive investment in both production and the retail sector on this side of the Channel. I may be no closer to picking up vast stocks of first growth bordelais produce, but I’m happy in the knowledge that at least there’ll be a space for it in future markets.

Sublime and ridiculous: Bordeaux 2009 en primeur

The first round of en primeur buying has just finished in Bordeaux for the 2009 vintage. This is where speculators buy the newest release of wine whilst it is still maturing in cask. It’s an interesting time, as the price of the wine can vary massively depending on grower’s reports and the hype which is conjured up around the release.

In short, the 2009 vintage looks to be exciting but inconsistent. Many respected commentators and MWs (Master of Wine) have declared it to be an interesting and potentially great year for some of the hallowed Bordelais vines. Extremely high alcohol levels are being balanced by a complimentary high acidity level which is sitting well with most communes. Success seems to be patchy, however, with quality somewhat uneven amongst producers and perceptions varying amongst critics.

Merlot seems to have suffered from a long ripening season and blends in which this predominates look to be similarly compromised by an overly aggressive alcohol level. Yet some are declaring that this vintage could potentially challenge the much-lauded 2005 release in the most successful Chateaux.

Prices could be high, although restraint has been urged on the part of buyers in an uncertain global financial climate. Prices for 2008 were massively reduced (with stocks for previous vintages remaining unsold amidst a depressed market) and there looks to be a substantial rise in 2009, with the potential for surpassing a more normal level. Estimates place it at about 15% lower than the astronomic prices seen in 2005. Yet, with stocks from previous years still remaining, this may yet prove a false dawn.

Time will tell as the market finds its feet amidst talk of economic recovery. Even top Chateaux are loath to predict the pricing levels for the 2009 vintage, however. The problem lies in the inconsistency of quality – were this vintage an unqualified success across Bordeaux excitement would be through the roof. Yet, with potential pit-falls awaiting investors, a trend of cautious buying could be exacerbated. Sublime for some, ridiculous for those who miss out on what could be a fantastic bargain!